In the first five months, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 13.87 trillion yuan, and the decline narrowed. In May, the sales of heavy and light trucks both reached record highs in the same period. From January to May, the total planned investment of new projects increased by 7.9%… … A series of figures show that China’s domestic demand is accelerating.
At present, a series of policies and measures around "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" are gradually taking effect, and the resumption of business and markets in various places is accelerating, especially under the impetus of multiple measures such as expanding domestic demand and promoting investment and consumption, the investment and consumer markets are accelerating. Many experts said that the supply-side structural reform will continue to deepen in the second half of the year, relevant policies and measures will be accelerated, and the huge potential of the domestic demand market will continue to be released, which will further highlight its supporting role for the economy.
A number of indicators are improving, releasing the signal of domestic demand recovery.
In June, the manufacturing PMI was 50.9%, rising from the previous month and standing in threshold for four consecutive months. The leading indicators released positive signals. Haitong Securities analysts Chen Xing and Ying Jiaxian pointed out in the analysis report that the new order index rose from 50.9% in May to 51.4% in June, rising for two consecutive months and hitting the second highest point in the year, exceeding the level of the same period last year, and the import index also rose from 45.3% in May to 47%, indicating that domestic demand continued to pick up.
Investment demand is also picking up. The latest investment data shows that the growth rate of investment in high-tech industries and social fields has turned from negative to positive.
Ding Yong, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the steady investment policy taking effect, the investment in new projects continued to show a good trend. The planned total investment of new projects increased by 7.9% from January to May, which was 6.8 percentage points faster than that from January to April. According to relevant indicators, the production and sales of construction machinery products were booming in May, with the output of digging, shoveling and transporting machinery and concrete machinery increasing by 62.1% and 42.2% respectively, and the sales of excavators increasing by 68%. All these indicate that investment is expected to continue to pick up in the future.
According to the data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May, the sales volume of heavy trucks in China reached 179,000, up 65.6% year-on-year, and the sales volume of light trucks reached 215,000, up 43.4% year-on-year. The sales volume of both types of vehicles reached a new high in the same period. According to industry insiders, like construction machinery products, the sharp jump in sales of commercial vehicles such as trucks is a strong proof that investment is picking up rapidly.
Behind a series of good data, structural reforms on the supply side are deepening and a series of policies are gradually becoming effective. The reporter of the Economic Information Daily learned that in the next step, China will issue opinions to support the steady growth, transformation and upgrading of private manufacturing enterprises, study and issue guiding opinions to promote the intelligent transformation of manufacturing industries, carry out pilot demonstrations on the cultivation of advanced manufacturing clusters, and formulate national hydrogen energy industry development strategic plans.
In addition, a number of heavy policy arrangements will be implemented, including the addition of two "1 trillion yuan" by the central government, the implementation of larger-scale tax reduction and fee reduction, efforts to stabilize and expand employment by all means, and greater macro-policy efforts to hedge the impact of the epidemic.
Promote consumption benefit to show the market and accelerate the replenishment
At present, the consumer market shows a trend of accelerating compensation. From the national situation, from January to May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods nationwide reached 13.87 trillion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 5.5 percentage points narrower than that in the first quarter. It decreased by 2.8% in May, and the cumulative decline for three consecutive months narrowed by 17.7 percentage points. At the local level, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hainan, Henan, Shanghai and other places have achieved a decline in consumption growth.
Li Danghui, deputy director of the Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that China’s consumer market has overcome the impact of the epidemic and achieved a monthly recovery. The consumption of basic living goods has continued to grow, upgraded goods are more active, and the retail sales of housing and transportation goods have improved. "This shows that under the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the people’s demand and pursuit for a better life are still growing, reflecting the great development potential and strong resilience of China’s consumer market."
It is worth noting that many departments are still intensively introducing multiple consumption promotion policies to accelerate the release of domestic demand market potential. The reporter learned that in the field of commodity consumption, relevant departments are promoting the construction of new infrastructure and supporting green and intelligent consumption, among which the replacement and recycling of household appliances, automobiles and other bulk commodities will become the focus. In addition, the comprehensive promotion of foreign trade products to domestic sales has also injected new kinetic energy into the consumer market. On June 22nd, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Supporting Export Products to Domestic Sales" to encourage foreign trade enterprises to expand sales channels and promote domestic consumption upgrading.
In the field of service consumption, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and other departments will continue to promote the orderly resumption of production in catering, shopping malls, culture, tourism, housekeeping and other industries, and adapt to new demands and trends, promote innovation in supply methods, develop new formats and new models, and stimulate market vitality with supply-side reform.
Guan Lixin, deputy director of the Institute of Circulation and Consumption of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the Economic Information Daily that despite the impact of the epidemic, the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the expectations of residents for a better life have not changed. From the central government to the local government, from the government to enterprises, a series of policies and measures to support commercial enterprises to resume production and promote residents’ consumption have been introduced one after another, which have boosted consumer confidence, enlivened the consumer market, enriched consumer supply and effectively promoted the accelerated release of China’s huge domestic demand market potential.
Sustained release of domestic demand potential and prominent economic resilience
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the huge potential of the domestic demand market will continue to be released, and its supporting role for the economy will be further highlighted.
Taking the export-to-domestic market as an example, Yang Guoliang, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that the accelerated release of domestic market demand has provided a domestic market for export industries such as electronic appliances, light industry, textiles and clothing, and agricultural products. From the perspective of investment, the promotion of new infrastructure, new urbanization and major projects in various places has brought new opportunities to export industries such as machinery and equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment and precision instruments. From the perspective of consumption upgrading, some foreign trade enterprises are shifting from traditional mass production to personalized customization, which can better meet the needs of domestic consumption upgrading. The rapid development of new consumption modes such as online sales and live broadcast with goods has also opened up sales channels for foreign trade enterprises directly facing consumer groups.
The analysis points out that the pulling effect of domestic demand market on foreign trade is only a microcosm of China’s economic resilience, and in other fields, this virtuous circle of economic development is also being opened. In Guan Lixin’s view, China is taking meeting domestic demand as the starting point and the end result of development, and making efforts to open up all links of production, distribution, circulation and consumption.
Guan Lixin pointed out that it is necessary to start with expanding the scale of consumption and promoting the upgrading of consumption physique, constantly create an effective supply that meets the new demand, introduce more goods and services that meet the needs of domestic consumers, increase investment around the supply-side structural reform, and strengthen the construction of infrastructure such as education, medical care and community services, give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment, consolidate the foundation of domestic large-scale circulation based on serving people’s livelihood, and form a domestic and international double-cycle pattern led by domestic consumption.
Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the future, we will vigorously tap the potential of releasing domestic demand, and the next step will focus on adapting, leading and creating new demand with high-quality supply, actively promoting the replacement and recycling of household appliances and automobiles, and accelerating the development and improvement of new consumption formats to take advantage of the trend, giving full play to the role of investment in the central budget, special bonds of local governments and special anti-epidemic bonds, and accelerating the construction of short-board areas.
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