The daily passenger traffic volume of this year’s summer vacation is relatively stable, and there is no rapid decline in the summer vacation in 2021, indicating that the effect of epidemic impact is changing.
Today, Chengdu issued a notice, from September 1 to September 4, all the people in the city will be tested for nucleic acid. From 18: 00 on September 1, all residents should stay at home in principle, and non-residents of this community are not allowed to enter. Citizens must not leave Rong unless they have special needs, and they will leave Rong with negative nucleic acid within 24 hours.
The reporter checked the flight dynamics software and found that there are still flights taking off and landing at two airports in Chengdu today, but a large number of flights have been cancelled. As of this afternoon, the flight cancellation rate is above 60%.
From the perspective of flight volume, the top five destination cities of Chengdu are Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Changsha in turn.
During the just-concluded summer vacation, Chengdu was the most popular travel city. Compared with the situation in 2019 before the epidemic, in 2022, Chengdu rose from the fourth place to the first place, followed by Beijing and Guangzhou, and Shanghai fell from the second place to the sixth place.
Statistics from flight steward show that 24 of the 41 10 million-class airports in the summer vacation in 2022 are growing year-on-year. Except Nanjing Lukou Airport (which is under static management in the summer vacation in 2021), the top three airports with year-on-year growth in 2021 are Chengdu Tianfu Airport (321.0%), Zhengzhou Xinzheng Airport (37.0%) and Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport (22.7%). Even if there was an epidemic in Chengdu at the end of the summer vacation, the total number of two inbound and outbound flights in Chengdu still ranked second in the country, second only to Beijing, with an increase of 23.8% compared with 2021.
In the first half of the summer vacation that began in July, Hainan was once one of the main destinations for domestic tourists. On the eve of the summer vacation, the volume and price of air tickets to Hainan have risen, and airlines have changed their wide-body planes to fly to Hainan.
However, after entering August, the sudden epidemic situation and the escalation of prevention and control policies made Hainan’s continued fiery heat in the second half of the summer vacation come to an abrupt end. The flight volume of Sanya Phoenix Airport decreased by 17.8% compared with 2021, and Haikou Meilan also decreased by 22.2% compared with 2021. The situation in Xinjiang, Tibet and other places is similar, and the number of flights gradually decreased in the second half of the summer vacation.
The coldness of popular tourist destinations in the second half of the summer vacation has directly affected the performance of the civil aviation industry in the whole summer vacation in 2022. According to the data of flight steward, in 2022, the number of civil aviation passenger flights carried out during the summer vacation was 608,000, which was the lowest level in the past four years, with a decrease of 2.5% compared with 2021, a decrease of 13.2% compared with 2020, and a recovery to 65% in 2019.
In addition, in 2022, the passenger traffic of civil aviation during the summer vacation was about 65.64 million, down by 8.2% compared with 2021, down by 23.0% compared with 2020, and recovered to 54.5% in 2019. Among them, the domestic passenger traffic volume recovered to 61.2% in 2019, and under the "five ones" policy in the international market, the passenger traffic volume was less than 2 percentage points in 2019.
However, Lan Xiang, dean of Qunar Big Data Research Institute, pointed out that the daily passenger traffic volume of this year’s summer vacation is relatively stable, and there is no rapid decline in the summer vacation in 2021, indicating that the impact of the epidemic is changing, and it is no longer as ups and downs as before. Once a large-scale national epidemic occurs, the passenger traffic will fall to the bottom and last for a long time. "Although epidemics broke out in many cities in the late summer vacation, it only affected local markets: an epidemic in a certain place will only affect the travel of passengers in this area, but it will not affect passengers in other areas."
From the point of view of air ticket prices, there was also a decline in fares in the second half of the summer vacation. On the whole, the economy class fare (excluding fuel tax) in 2022 decreased by 9.1% compared with 2021. In the first week of the summer vacation, the average fare at that time once exceeded 2021, and it was even hard to get a ticket from Shanghai to Sanya.
According to the air ticket data of flight steward, in 2022, the average economy class fare of TOP20 route increased positively year-on-year, namely: Guangzhou Baiyun-Shanghai Hongqiao (46.1%), Guangzhou Baiyun-Kunming Changshui (33.2%), Kunming Changshui-Shenzhen Baoan (7.4%) and Shanghai Hongqiao-Shenzhen Baoan (5.0%), among which Guangzhou.
After the summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday followed. According to the Forecast Data Report of Mid-Autumn Festival and Autumn Tour in 2022 released by Ctrip, as of August 30, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday orders increased by 137% compared with the same period of the Dragon Boat Festival, of which the orders for air tickets and train tickets increased by nearly 2 times and 5 times respectively, but the ticket prices ushered in a depression.
According to Ctrip’s data, the price of one-way air ticket including tax during the Mid-Autumn Festival is 770 yuan, which is 20% lower than the average price of 963 yuan during the summer vacation, which is lower than the current average price of 824 yuan during the National Day. In September, the overall average price of air tickets also remained at the level around 750 yuan.