abstract:
Domestically, there were heavy rains or heavy rains in Guangxi, Hubei, Chongqing and other places yesterday. It is estimated that there will be rainstorm disasters in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and other places from 19th to 21st, and we should pay attention to flash floods, geological disasters and waterlogging in urban and rural areas that may be caused by local heavy rainfall. On the 19th, North China and Northeast China paid attention to the impact of rainfall and local strong convective weather, and some sea areas in the East China Sea paid attention to the impact of foggy weather on ship navigation.
Globally, yesterday, there was strong precipitation in the central part of Indo-China Peninsula in Western Europe, continuous high temperature weather in India and Arabian Peninsula, and tropical storm "Yili" moved to the north-north direction. It is expected that it will be rainy in western Europe and southern Europe; There is heavy rainfall in southern India and Sri Lanka Island.
I. Domestic weather conditions
1. Reality
Yesterday, there was heavy rain or heavy rain in Guangxi, Hubei, Chongqing and other places.
From 8: 00 yesterday to 6: 00 today, heavy rains occurred in parts of north-central and southwestern Guangxi, northwestern Guangdong, southeastern Hainan Island and western Hunan, southwestern Hubei, eastern and southwestern Guizhou, eastern Yunnan, northern and southeastern Chongqing, northeastern Sichuan and southwestern Shaanxi, with heavy rains in Baise, Nanning, Qinzhou, Fangchenggang, Guilin and Enshi, Hubei, Youyang, Chongqing and Dazhou, Sichuan, and heavy rains in Qinzhou and Fangchenggang, Guangxi. The maximum hourly rainfall in some of the above areas is 30 ~ 70 mm, and the local areas of Baise, Nanning and Qinzhou in Guangxi are 100 ~ 190 mm. In addition, scattered moderate rain or heavy rain occurred in parts of central and northeastern Beijing, northern Hebei, eastern Inner Mongolia, central Jilin and northern Liaoning, and local heavy rains (50-56 mm) occurred in Miyun, Beijing and Chengde, Hebei; There are 8 ~ 10 thunderstorms and strong winds in central and northeastern Inner Mongolia, northwestern Shanxi and Heilongjiang.
2. Key weather forecast
(1) There will be heavy rain in Guangdong, Guangxi and other places.
It is estimated that there will be a heavy rainfall process in the eastern part of Southwest China, Jianghan, South China and South Jiangnan from 19th to 21st, and there will be heavy rains in parts of Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian and other places, including heavy rains in southeastern Guangxi and southwestern Guangdong, and local heavy rains. Some of the above areas are accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, and there are strong convective weather such as thunderstorms or hail in the local area.
From 08: 00 on May 19 to 08: 00 on May 20, there were heavy rains in central and eastern Guangxi, most of Guangdong and northern Hainan Island, among which there were heavy rains (100-200 mm) in parts of southeastern Guangxi and southwestern Guangdong. Some of the above areas are accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall (the maximum hourly rainfall is 20 ~ 50 mm, and the local area can exceed 80 mm), and there are strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds (see Figure 1). The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow rainstorm warning at 06: 00 on May 19.
Fig. 1 Forecast of Heavy Rainfall in China (08: 00 May 19-08: 00 May 20)
(2) There is little to moderate rain in Northeast China.
On the 19th, there was a precipitation process in parts of southeastern Inner Mongolia, north China and south-central Northeast China, with small to moderate rain or thunderstorms and local heavy rain in most areas.
Second, the global weather situation
1. Reality
(1) Strong precipitation occurred in the central part of Indo-China Peninsula in Western Europe.
In the past 24 hours, small to medium snow or sleet appeared in northern Eastern Europe, northern Western Siberia, northern and eastern Central Siberia, and northern and eastern Far East, and the local area was as heavy as blizzard; Small to moderate rain occurred in parts of western Europe, southern Central Europe, northwestern and eastern South Europe, central and southeastern Eastern Europe, central Siberia, central Far East, Great Caucasus, Turan Lowland, southern Kazakh hills, Mongolian Plateau, southern Indian Peninsula, central Indochina Peninsula, Southeast Asian islands, central and western Canada, eastern United States, northeastern and central South America, southern West Africa, western Central Africa, eastern East Africa, eastern Madagas Island and southwestern South China. Among them, heavy rains occurred in parts of western Europe, southern Central Europe, southern Eastern Europe, Greater Caucasus, northwestern Iran, southern Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia Islands, South Island of New Zealand and other places. Dust weather occurred in parts of North Africa, West Asia, Central Asia and southern North Asia.
(2) Continuous high temperature weather in India and Arabian Peninsula.
In the past 24 hours, some areas in Arabian Peninsula, Indian Peninsula, Indus River Plain, Ganges River Plain, western Indo-China Peninsula, south-central West Africa, northern Central Africa, North Africa, Mexico and other places continued to have high temperature above 35℃, and the local maximum temperature exceeded 42℃.
(3) Tropical storm "Yili" moved to the north-north direction.
In the past 24 hours, tropical storm "Yili" in the South Indian Ocean moved to the north-north direction.
2. Key weather forecast
(1) It is rainy in western Europe and southern Europe.
On the 20th, due to the slow-moving vortex trough, rainy weather continued in most parts of western Europe and southern Europe, and there were heavy rains in the northern and southwestern parts of southern Europe.
(2) There is heavy rainfall in southern India and Sri Lanka Island.
On the 20th, due to the influence of jet stream and shear system, there will be strong precipitation in the south of Indian Peninsula and Sri Lanka Island, and there will be heavy rain and local heavy rain.
Third, the domestic specific forecast for the next three days
From 08: 00 on May 19 to 08: 00 on May 20, there were moderate to heavy rains in parts of southern China, southern Jiangnan, Jianghan, central and eastern Yunnan, central North China, eastern and southern Northeast China, and Ili Valley in Xinjiang, among which there were heavy rains or heavy rains (100-200 mm) in parts of southeastern Guangxi and southwestern Guangdong. There are 4 ~ 6 winds in parts of northwestern Inner Mongolia, southern Xinjiang Basin, and Hexi, Gansu (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (08: 00 May 19-08: 00 May 20)
From 08: 00 on May 20 to 08: 00 on May 21, there were moderate to heavy rains in parts of central and eastern Guangdong, southern and eastern Fujian, southeastern Zhejiang, Taiwan Province Island, northern Hunan, northwestern and southern Yunnan, and Ili Valley in Xinjiang. Among them, there were heavy rains or heavy rains (100-120 mm) in parts of southeastern Fujian, coastal areas of southeastern Guangdong and central and northern Taiwan Province Island. There are 4 ~ 6 winds in parts of southern Xinjiang basin, Hexi in Gansu and southeastern Fujian, among which there are 6 ~ 7 winds in parts of northern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang basin (see Figure 3).
Figure 3 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (08: 00 May 20-08: 00 May 21)
From 08: 00 on May 21 to 08: 00 on May 22, there were moderate to heavy rains in parts of central and southern Jiangxi, most of Fujian and central and eastern Guangdong, among which there were heavy rains (50-80 mm) in eastern Guangdong, southeastern Fujian and southwestern Jiangxi. There are 4 ~ 6 winds in parts of eastern Xinjiang, southern Xinjiang basin and western Qinghai, among which there are 8 ~ 9 winds in parts of eastern Xinjiang (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (08: 00 May 21-08: 00 May 22)
(Editor: Xu Nenyu)
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