A few days ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the update of the World Economic Outlook Report, which greatly increased the economic growth rate of China from 4% predicted in April to 4.8% in 2025, with an increase rate as high as 0.8%. This adjustment was mainly based on the strong economic performance of China in the first half of the year. The forecast of economic growth in 2026 was also raised by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%.
China has outstanding economic development resilience. The theme of this IMF report is "Fragility and Resilience under Persistent Uncertainty". Under the circumstances that the external environment is full of uncertainties and the world economic recovery is fragile, China’s economic growth forecast has been greatly raised, reflecting the strong resilience of China’s economy. In recent years, China has effectively responded to the impact of the complicated and severe international situation by optimizing the policy environment and structural reforms. In addition to the International Monetary Fund, Deutsche Bank and other international investment banks have also raised their growth expectations for China’s economy, believing that the long-term competitiveness of China’s economy will support its sustained growth, and the resilience of China’s economy is being more and more widely recognized internationally.
According to the report, the upward adjustment of China’s economic growth forecast is mainly driven by domestic demand, export and innovation. In terms of domestic demand, China has implemented more active and promising macro policies, and a number of policy measures have boosted consumption and expanded domestic demand, which has obviously supported economic recovery. The recovery of domestic demand has become one of the important driving forces for economic growth. In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth reached 68.8%, of which the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure was 52%, indicating that domestic demand has become the main driving force for China’s economic growth.
On the export side, China, as the second largest economy in the world, has shown great resilience in its export trade, despite some external factors such as the economic and trade differences between China and the United States. In 2024, the scale of China’s goods trade reached a new high, and the stable export performance provided a strong support for China’s economic growth and an important guarantee for global trade stability.
In terms of innovation, the rapid development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence is changing the pattern of global trade and capital flow. China’s investment and progress in this field may become an important driving force for future economic growth, and technological innovation has injected new vitality into China’s economy. By promoting the development of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing, technological innovation has significantly enhanced the endogenous power of China’s economy. Only in May 2025, the added value of equipment manufacturing above designated size increased by 9%, and its contribution rate to industrial production reached 54.3%. This structural optimization makes the economy more flexible in the face of external shocks and reduces the negative impact of traditional industrial fluctuations on the overall economy.
China has made great contributions to world development. According to the report, China’s strong economic growth has injected important impetus into the global economy. Although global economic growth is facing uncertainties, China’s steady economic growth has provided solid support for the global economy. In the first half of 2025, China’s GDP increased by 5.3% year-on-year, which was higher than international expectations. This performance was evaluated as "stronger than expected economic activity" by the International Monetary Fund. Among them, China’s economy has a positive impact on the global economy through trade and other channels. Despite external pressure, China, as a global trading power, has a total import and export volume of more than 6 trillion US dollars, and "Made in China" products sell well in many countries, providing important support for global trade.
China leads high-quality development with new-quality productivity, and contributes innovative kinetic energy to the global economy. By promoting industrial upgrading and technological innovation, China has ensured the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain. International people generally believe that the high-quality development of China will inject more impetus and certainty into the world economy.
China’s strong economic performance boosted the confidence of the international community. Many international financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth because China’s economic data in the second quarter was better than expected. Against the background of global economic slowdown, the steady performance of China’s economy has provided important support for the global response to uncertainty. China has set an example for global economic recovery by expanding domestic demand and optimizing its structure.
The contribution of China’s economic development to the global economy is not only reflected in the data of economic growth and trade scale, but also lies in China’s high-quality development, innovation-driven and opening up, which provides stability and certainty for the global economy. The international community generally recognizes China’s role as a global economic stabilizer and growth engine.
Original title: "The International Monetary Fund raises China’s economic expectations"
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