CCTV News:Yesterday, the NBA finals ended, and the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers to win the championship. On this day, a former NBA champion team member once again entered the public eye — — Dennis rodman, a former bull player, arrived in Pyongyang, North Korea by plane yesterday.
△ Rodman arrived at Pyongyang Airport
"Private visit" is not "business"
Rodman and his party visited the DPRK at the invitation of the DPRK Sports Ministry, and the DPRK gave them a high-standard reception.
For this visit, Rodman responded that this trip has no official background and hopes that this visit will open the door and do something for North Korean sports. His aim "has always been to bring sports into North Korea".
According to a senior American official, the State Council knew about Rodman’s trip to North Korea, but stressed that he was not visiting North Korea in an official capacity.
Rodman visited North Korea four times to sing a birthday song for Kim Jong-un.
It is reported that Rodman had visited North Korea four times before. According to Rodman, his repeated visits to the DPRK were "basketball diplomacy".
On February 26th, 2013, Rodman led an American basketball delegation to Pyongyang to start his first trip to North Korea. During his week-long visit to North Korea, Kim Jong-un met and hosted a banquet for Rodman and his party.
In 2013, Rodman visited North Korea twice to interact with the North Korean basketball team. Kim Jong-un said that Rodman, as a friend, can visit the DPRK at any time in the future.
△ On September 6, 2013, Kim Jong-un once again hosted Rodman in Pyongyang.
On January 6, 2014, Rodman led the American basketball team composed of retired American professional basketball players to visit North Korea for the fourth time. On January 8, to celebrate Kim Jong-un’s birthday, Rodman led the American basketball team to play a friendly match with the North Korean basketball team in Pyongyang Stadium. Kim Jong-un and his wife attended and watched the game. Before the friendly match, Rodman also sang a birthday song for Kim Jong-un.
The story between Rodman and Trump
Rodman’s visit to North Korea this time is the first time since US President Trump took office. Rodman said, "I am very sure that Trump is happy about this." Rodman and Trump, who seem to have no intersection, actually have some stories.
In 2009, Rodman made his first appearance on the reality show "Celebrity Apprentice". Trump praised the basketball player as "a work".
In 2013, Rodman once again appeared as a "celebrity apprentice". Rodman was finally "fired" by Trump because he misspelled the name of Mrs. Trump Melania in the program.
According to Rodman’s assistant, before Trump was elected president, Rodman had talked with Trump about his several trips to North Korea. CNN said that before entering politics, Trump praised Rodman’s trip to North Korea in 2013 when he was interviewed by Fox TV. In 2015, when Trump announced his candidacy for the presidency, Rodman supported Trump all the way.
North Korea releases detained American college students
Just as Rodman arrived in North Korea to start his visit, on the 13th local time, US Secretary of State Tillerson confirmed that the North Korean government had released Otto Warmbier, an American college student who had been detained by North Korea for 17 months.
Warmbier, a 21-year-old college student from the University of Virginia in the United States, was detained by the DPRK on January 2, 2016 while preparing to leave pyongyang sunan international airport. In March 2016, he was sentenced to 15 years of reeducation through labor by the North Korean Supreme Court for conspiring to subvert the country.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Support the United States and the DPRK to strengthen dialogue and contacts.
The detained American college students were released and Rodman visited the DPRK. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang also responded to this matter at today’s regular press conference, saying that he didn’t know whether there was a connection between the two, and China has always supported the United States and the DPRK to strengthen dialogue and contacts. If these two events may be related, I think it is a positive development.
Recently, North Korea has been conducting missile tests continuously, and the United States has also made frequent moves militarily, showing tension between the DPRK and the United States. At the end of this month, South Korean President Moon Jae in will also start a trip to the United States. In this context, what is Rodman’s intention to visit the DPRK? Will there be a turn for the better in US-DPRK relations? Will the situation on the peninsula usher in a new round of interaction? from …view/come and seeLiu Hua, an expert on international issuesInterpretation.
Interpretation of CCTV
Rodman’s recent visit, on the surface, looks like a "turnaround" between the United States and North Korea, but the actual situation may be more complicated.
It is impossible to judge that the US has substantially adjusted its policy toward the DPRK.
First of all, judging from North Korea’s traditional diplomatic thinking, it is obvious that the timing of inviting Rodman to visit has political and diplomatic considerations. If we consider the action of releasing American college students, this "combination boxing" can be regarded as a signal that the DPRK is releasing easing relations.
However, diplomacy is not a unilateral move, but both sides must "dance" together. We need to ask a question: What is the nature of Rodman’s visit in the eyes of the US, and is it a kind of "basketball diplomacy"?
It should be noted that American diplomacy involves many domestic "blocks", and the situation under the water is extremely complicated. The departments that have the right to speak in foreign relations not only have theoretical authorities — — The State Council, the United States, as well as the military, intelligence agencies, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Justice, including the White House (it is quite common for the White House to disagree with the State Council).
Perhaps, in the eyes of some departments, Rodman’s visit can be regarded as a kind of communication and change, but in the eyes of others, it doesn’t make any sense, and it doesn’t conform to the status quo of the US-DPRK relations in the latter departments.
Therefore, judging from Rodman’s visit, the DPRK is indeed sending some signals, but it cannot be judged that the US policy toward the DPRK has undergone major changes or substantial adjustments.
△ Rodman arrived at Pyongyang Airport and was greeted by the Deputy Minister of Sports and Culture of the DPRK.
Rodman’s visit will play a communication role.
In any case, this kind of visit will obviously play a certain communication role. After Rodman’s previous visits to the DPRK and his return to China, he also conveyed to the media some statements made by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. For example, the DPRK actually has no "malice" towards the United States. This is obviously the message that the DPRK wants to convey to the US — — But how the diplomatic, military and intelligence departments of the United States judge this information respectively is another matter.
At the same time, we should also pay attention to one point: from the perspective of domestic politics in the United States, it is obviously not the time for the Trump administration to fully reconcile with the DPRK. At present, the "TongRumen" investigation is the focus of the US political situation, and the Trump administration is deeply involved. In American domestic politics, the attitude towards traditional "opponents" and even "adversaries" such as Russia, North Korea and Iran is quite "politically correct". If the Trump administration is suspected of "communicating with Russia" and fully reconciles with the DPRK, it will undoubtedly bear greater pressure in the United States.
Conversely, in the past, Trump’s missile attack on the Syrian government and the "demonstration" of three aircraft carrier battle groups near the Korean Peninsula were more like "pleasing" the mainstream of domestic politics in the United States.
Based on the above factors, it can be seen that the DPRK is indeed showing some kind of reconciliation gesture in Rodman’s visit to the DPRK, but it is far from being a substantial signal of "relaxation" or "reconciliation" in the US-DPRK relations.
△ Rodman’s visit to the DPRK (data map)
Changes in South Korea’s internal affairs will help temporarily ease the situation on the peninsula.
Furthermore, changes in South Korea’s internal affairs are more likely to help temporarily ease the situation on the peninsula. After Moon Jae in took office, the South Korean government announced that it could suspend the US-South Korea military exercise on the premise that North Korea abandoned its nuclear program. Although this is only a test of public opinion, it also coincides with the "double suspension" scheme proposed by China (the DPRK suspends its nuclear test and the United States and South Korea suspend its military exercises).
At the end of this month, Moon Jae in will visit the United States, and the United States and South Korea will undoubtedly "align" their policies on the peninsula. If you get some permission from Trump, it is not excluded that Moon Jae in will take positive actions in its policy toward the DPRK. After all, the tension on the peninsula for more than a year has brought substantial impact on South Korea’s economy and society. If it is a responsible South Korean government, it should have taken substantial measures long ago to ease and stabilize the regional situation.
In any case, dialogue is better than confrontation, not only between the United States and North Korea, but also between South Korea and North Korea.
关于作者